btc-intelpoint-in-time BTC market intelligence

BTC Intelligence — btc_usd_spot

As of 2026-07-20T17:00:00Z

What is happening?

TrendUPTREND
VolatilityVOLATILITY_SHOCK
LiquidityLIQUID
LeverageLEVERAGE_BUILDING
Regime statusCOMPLETE

Evidence trust: MISCALIBRATED · Last change: VOLATILITY_STATE_CHANGED: NORMAL_VOLATILITY → VOLATILITY_SHOCK (2026-07-20T16:00:00Z)

Why?

Eventetf_institutional
Mechanisminstitutional_access_expansion
Source tierofficial
Confirmationconfirmed

Historical context

Analogs3
Primary horizon4h
Main historical pathTREND_CONTINUATION
Observed fraction0.6667
Shown asHISTORICAL_FREQUENCY

Scenario distribution

HorizonDominantObserved fraction Shown asCalibration
15mRANGE_BOUND1.0HISTORICAL_FREQUENCYUNKNOWN
1hRANGE_BOUND0.6667HISTORICAL_FREQUENCYUNKNOWN
24hTREND_CONTINUATION0.6667HISTORICAL_FREQUENCYUNKNOWN
4hRANGE_BOUND0.6667HISTORICAL_FREQUENCYVALIDATED
5mRANGE_BOUND1.0HISTORICAL_FREQUENCYUNKNOWN
7dHISTORICAL_FREQUENCYUNKNOWN

Trust panel

event_confirmationconfirmed
historical_similarity3 analogs
calibrationMISCALIBRATED

Data completeness: 4/ 4 · Known weaknesses: high leverage environments, thin liquidity, volatility shocks

Recent changes

TimeTypeChangeSeverity
2026-07-20T16:00:00ZVOLATILITY_STATE_CHANGEDNORMAL_VOLATILITY → VOLATILITY_SHOCKHIGH
2026-07-20T15:00:00ZCALIBRATION_STATUS_CHANGEDVALIDATED → MISCALIBRATEDHIGH
2026-07-20T15:00:00ZCALIBRATION_STATUS_CHANGEDVALIDATED → MISCALIBRATEDHIGH
2026-07-20T15:00:00ZTRUST_CHANGEDTrue → FalseHIGH
2026-07-20T14:00:00ZSCENARIO_DISTRIBUTION_CHANGEDTREND_CONTINUATION → RANGE_BOUNDMEDIUM
2026-07-20T12:30:00ZLEVERAGE_STATE_CHANGEDNORMAL → LEVERAGE_STRESSHIGH
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